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Physics > Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

Title: The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System: Looking Back (more than) 25 Years and Projecting Forward 25 Years

Authors: Tim Palmer
Abstract: This paper has been written to mark 25 years of operational medium-range ensemble forecasting. The origins of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System are outlined, including the development of the precursor real-time Met Office monthly ensemble forecast system. In particular, the reasons for the development of singular vectors and stochastic physics - particular features of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System - are discussed. The author speculates about the development and use of ensemble prediction in the next 25 years.
Comments: Submitted to Special Issue of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society: 25 years of ensemble prediction
Subjects: Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph)
Cite as: arXiv:1803.06940 [physics.ao-ph]
  (or arXiv:1803.06940v1 [physics.ao-ph] for this version)

Submission history

From: Tim Palmer [view email]
[v1] Fri, 16 Mar 2018 12:48:23 GMT (1059kb)